What to Decide, in a Country That Does Not Exist

Several pieces of shrapnel from a bomb have punctured Eastern Europe. It is spread out here and there, leaving wounds in the regions it has pierced. Unlike a regular bomb, the shrapnel has not spread randomly, flying in all directions. Rather it has been strategically placed out to cause the most harm. And unlike a regular bomb, it did not draw blood directly with its explosion. 

The bomb in this scenario is the Soviet Union, which exploded relatively peacefully. The pieces of shrapnel from the explosion are the areas in former Eastern Bloc countries with geographical areas of significant Russian influence to this day. The clearest examples are Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, who all three have experienced wars with Russians or Russian-backed separatists. 

In Eastern Moldova there is a region, a piece of shrapnel, called Transnistria, which translates to “The Land Beyond the River Dniester”. This name originates from how one would see the region from the West on the map. In Transnistria, where the population is majority Russian, it is equated to a “symbol of Western fascism” and illegal to use. Instead, they call it “Pridnestrovie”, translating to “The Land Before the River Dniester”, which is how one views it from the East on the map. 

Transnistria is universally recognized as part of Moldova, but is de facto a functioning independent state. They have their own passports, currency and political system. Furthermore it is one of the last living remainders of the fallen communist empire. On its main square stands a grand Lenin monument, its flag features the hammer and sickle, and its coat of arms is copied from the standard Soviet model. 

Like so many other pieces of Russian shrapnel, Transnistria became part of the Russian sphere of influence through decades of forced russification, ethnic displacement and Russian settlement during the Soviet era. The short history of this unrecognized country has been characterized by Russian influence, and not least, indecision about its status. From 1989 there have been as many as seven referenda which all shaped Transnistria significantly and will most likely affect the future of Eastern Europe as a whole. The goal of this article is to outline the history of the most important referenda and how they have affected Transnistria, and to catch a glimpse of the region’s future. 

December 1989-November 1990.

A referendum on establishing the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic is held. 95.8% of the population is in favor. Upon proclamation of its independence from Moldova, an armed conflict breaks out between Moldovan forces and Transnistrian separatists, backed by Russian forces. This conflict lasted until July of 1992 before a ceasefire was implemented, leading to Transnistria gaining its de facto independence. 

December 1991.

In the midst of the armed conflict and the imminent collapse of the Soviet Union, a second independence referendum was held, this time under the new name of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. 97.7% of the population is in favor. The dissolution of the Soviet Union in combination with this referendum formalizes Transnistria’s independence even further.

March 1995.

Almost three years after the armed conflict ended, a referendum is held regarding the persistence of Russian troops within Transnistrian territory. 93% of the population is in favor of the alternative of Russian troops staying indefinitely on Transnistrian territory. 

December 1995.

A referendum is held regarding a Transnistrian application of joining the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the organization of states that gained independence from the Soviet Union. 90.6% of the population votes in favor. 

September 2006.

A third independence referendum is held in Transnistria, this time however with different options. The option for independence includes the fact that Transnistria undertakes free association with Russia. This means in practice, for an unrecognized state in the Russian sphere of influence and with Russian troops on its ground, becoming a satellite state. The second option is to revoke Transnistria’s independence and incorporate it into Moldova once again. 97.2% of the population is in favor of the former. However, this referendum is considered illegitimate by many actors because of Russian influence in the electoral process. 

Russian involvement in the internal policies of Moldova, especially Transnistria, has been a theme of the country ever since Russian settlers inhabited it, and all decisions Transnistria has made through these referenda have contributed to bringing it even deeper into the Russian sphere of influence. Additionally, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 only exacerbated this situation, seeing as the number of Russian soldiers stationed in Transnistria increased. On March 15th, 2022, the Council of Europe declared Transnistria’s status as Moldovan territory occupied by Russia. With all of this in mind, what does the future hold for the country that does not exist? 

From Moscow’s perspective, it is evident that maintaining control over Transnistria is geopolitically crucial. It has opened up a second front of Russian power and bargaining capital within the region, extending the Russian sphere of influence even further. Moldova is also not in a position to forcibly challenge Transnistria’s status as occupied territory without most likely triggering severe escalation by Russia, similarly to what happened when Georgia confronted its pro-Russian outbreak republics in 2008. The remaining actor is then Transnistria itself.

This article set out to understand Transnistria’s decision making throughout the years. Every decision along the way has led to its status today as, in practice, a Russian satellite territory. There is only one more decision that could further this trend, a decision several Western representatives have warned is impending; a referendum on its formal accession to Russia. We know that tensions between Moldova and its outbreak republic have once again blossomed after the Moldovan referendum only a month ago, which formalized in the constitution its desire to join the EU. It is therefore not unthinkable that Transnistria chooses this route. Would it cause a war with Moldova? What would the Russian retaliation look like in that case? Only the future can decide, and there are a lot of decisions to be made.