President-elect Donald Trump walking down a staircase alongside President Emmanuel Macron and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The re-election of Donald Trump sent a shockwave across Europe, panicking European leaders and populations, and potentially destabilising the continent as a whole. [1]
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The Spillover Effects of the American Election in Europe

Donald Trump has proposed sweeping tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports to the U.S., including on Europe.

Global attention has been fixed on the American election, with many across the Atlantic hoping the American people would elect Kamala Harris. However, those hopes were dashed with the return of another Trump presidency. Large parts of the population in European countries have grappled with the question of why the U.S. could elect Donald Trump, a choice that has shaken the geopolitical climate in the West and could lead to further destabilisation from a European perspective. This article focuses on three concerns, capturing both the U.S. perspective as well as the European perspective. Firstly, the potential decline of the U.S. democracy; secondly, the negative impact on the global economy; and thirdly, the decreased focus on European security.

Donald Trump can be considered a threat to American democracy. For over four years, Donald Trump has refused to acknowledge his loss in the 2020 presidential election. The peaceful transition of power is considered a fundamental principle of democracy. Given his failure to acknowledge his 2020 loss and the storming of capitol he has demonstrated that he does not uphold important democratic principles. His actions have resulted in four federal felonies related to his attempts to overturn the election results. Furthermore, he assured American Christians during this presidential election cycle that this will be the last election in which they need to vote. Meanwhile, the contentious Project 2025 could lead to mass layoffs of public servants, replacing them with loyalists to Trump. In sum this shows that Donald Trump does not respect core democratic principles.

U.S. democracy had steadily improved since the early 1900s, but during Trump’s first year in office (2017), the U.S. democratic score stood at 0.84, dropping to 0.73 by 2020. During Trump’s first term, the U.S. saw a significant drop in the V-Dem democracy index, with only a modest recovery under Biden. Although it’s unlikely that U.S. democracy would shift to autocracy during a second Trump term, his statements and past actions suggest that another decline in democratic standards is likely. Why does this matter from a European perspective? The U.S. has long been a model for democratic governance, inspiring democratic reforms around the world. A democratic decline in the U.S. might put additional pressures on Europe to uphold these democratic values around the world. A diminished U.S. commitment to democratic principles could weaken its influence in global alliances, leaving a power vacuum that non-democratic powers like Russia and China might fill.

Since the adoption of the American initiative known as the ’Marshall Plan’ after World War II, a new economic policy focused on rebuilding war-torn Europe, the U.S. and EU have historically prospered through free trade, fostering economic growth and widespread prosperity on both continents. However, this could change as Donald Trump has proposed sweeping tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports to the U.S., along with a 60% to 100% tariff specifically on Chinese goods. This also includes tariffs on Europe. Many economists have pointed out that the tariffs will increase prices for American consumers.

Several large cargo ships are being offloaded in a European harbour, in the Port of Rotterdam. Cranes are seen in the distance.
The trade relationship between Europe and the United States is one of the most important in the world, but has become increasingly fraught since the first Trump presidency. Now with Trump’s second term, where he has promised to enact sweeping tariffs, that relationship might be strained even further. [2]

Furthermore, this will make European cars, steel, and other items less attractive on the U.S. market. Trade across the Atlantic has long been a key factor in strengthening U.S.-European relations. While trade will continue, tariffs are likely to reduce the presence of European goods in the U.S. market. Additionally, tariffs create uncertainty in global markets, making it more difficult for businesses to plan for the future. For instance, they can trigger retaliatory measures, with the EU potentially imposing counter-tariffs on U.S. goods. This could escalate into a trade war between the two allies, disrupting economies on both sides and destabilizing markets. Ultimately, such tensions could undermine the international trade framework that has ensured fair and predictable commerce for decades.

Since the second world war the U.S. and NATO has been a stable guarantee for peace. Trump has shown that he is not a strong supporter of NATO and has even encouraged Russia to do whatever “the hell” they want with NATO members that do not pay. There have even been speculations that the president wants to withdraw from NATO. Furthermore, he is also not a strong supporter of Ukraine and expressed to not give Ukraine anymore money or weapons in its war with Russia. Although Trump did not withdraw from NATO during his first term, it is clear that he is not a strong supporter of the U.S. being involved in European security. Reduced U.S. support is causing European countries to significantly increase their own defence spending to compensate, potentially stretching already tight budgets. This increase in spending on defence is necessary because Trump’s lukewarm stance on NATO raised doubts about the U.S. commitment to defend European allies. This uncertainty could make Europe more vulnerable to aggression, particularly from Russia, which is currently undermining Ukrainian sovereignty.

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As I have argued above, electing Trump could have three major negative impacts for Europe: Firstly, the potential decline of the U.S.; secondly, the negative impact on the global economy; and thirdly, the decreased focus on European security. Europe and the U.S. have long been allies with aligning goals in what the world should look like. However, Trump’s ideas for the future do not align with the EU who is a promoter of free trade, democracy and European stability. When the American population voted for Trump it has for many become evident that Europe can no longer rely on the U.S. for security. The U.S. will also be more unpredictable when it comes to democratic ideals and economic trade over the Atlantic.

How should the EU and Europe respond to this? The French president Emmanuel Macron has for a long time promoted the idea of a strategically independent EU. I argue that Europe must stop looking across the Atlantic due to the uncertainty Donald Trump brings to the geopolitical landscape. Therefore Europe and EU needs to focus on creating a stronger EU with more cooperation with defence and increase its defence spending. The economic leverage is there to encourage increased defence spending, which would lead to Europe relying more on itself rather than the U.S. for its security needs. To be able to be more competitive on the world stage, the EU would need to increase defence spending and create more policies that promote economic growth. One example could be internal market reforms by reducing regulatory barriers, harmonizing standards, and fostering cross-border trade within the EU can boost economic efficiency and competitiveness. within the EU:s single market.

↓ Image Attributions

[1]: “Paris Hosted a Trilateral Meeting Between Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump.” by President Of Ukraine // Licensed under CC0 1.0

[2]: “GROENLAND” by kees torn // Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0