In the Eurasian Economic Union, Putin sees a New Russian Empire

The collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century: these were the words of Russian president Vladimir Putin in his 2005 state of the nation speech. During his reign, he has maneuvered Russia in a direction that highlights his desire to return to a time when his country was one of two dominating world powers. The main question for Putin has been what strategies to undertake in order to accomplish this. It turned out that the solution might be to look towards his eternal enemy; the West.

On Christmas Day of 1991, at 11:32 AM Washington time; 7:32 PM Moscow time, life in the two global superpowers was vastly different. Children in the United States were playing with the Christmas presents they had just opened, families were gathered, and everyone was happy to celebrate the holidays. In the Soviet Union, families were also gathered, but instead to watch their country dissolve on live television. Because at 7:32 PM, the red banner of the Soviet Union was lowered from the Kremlin, never to be hoisted again. During this short, but historically crucial moment, the Kremlin formally lost control over a land area of 5.3 million km², a population of 146 million people, and large parts of the union’s total GDP.

Finding itself severed geopolitically and economically, as well as in the midst of a large-scale transition from communism to free markets and capitalism, the 1990s was a turbulent period for Russia. Its GDP shrunk by 40% and was simultaneously struck by hyperinflation. Furthermore, the rapid privatization of previously state-controlled assets created a power vacuum that allowed oligarchs to assume control of immense economic and political capital. During this decade, Russia fell far behind the United States and became a shadow of its former self. This is the context in which a certain Vladimir Putin assumed the presidency.

One of the most comprehensive projects Putin has implemented in his attempt to restore Russia to its former glory days is to copy the concept of one of the most successful institutions of the West; the European Union. Russia created its own version in 2015, known as the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). It is built on almost the same foundation as the EU; implementing free movement of goods and services, having a decision-making body called the Eurasian Economic Commission and a judicial body called the Court of the Eurasian Economic Union. It currently has five member states: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia.

The question naturally arises: why would Putin copy the European Union, an alliance of Western countries that he views as enemies? Would that not be a sign of hypocrisy from Russia? The answer for Putin lies in the power which can be gained. For example, one of the most difficult dilemmas for many Western countries after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been how to end dependency on Russian energy, where the countries that succeeded in doing so have suffered economic hardships. Putin is well aware that dependency is the key to power, because the more dependent certain countries are on Russia economically, the higher the chances are of pulling these countries into its sphere of influence politically.

From Putin’s perspective, there are two possible scenarios: In the best case, economic interconnectedness within the union will create political and cultural interconnectedness and pull the countries into the Russian grip. In the worst case, Russia at least remains their primary economic partner. At first glance, this seems like a foolproof plan. For every new country that joins the EEU, there is one more country that Putin can exert power over, and one less country that can join any rival alliances. If we scratch beneath the surface, however, is it really that simple? Are there no hiccups to be found in the machinery?

Membership in the EEU is no guarantee that relations with Russia will develop positively, and there are several examples of this. One of them is Armenia, which used to be one of the most pro-Russian of the former Soviet republics. However, the ongoing conflict with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region has left Armenia looking in other directions. When Azeri soldiers entered the region, Russia – preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, and trying to maintain good relations with the energy-rich Azerbaijan – violated the existing security guarantee between itself and Armenia, and instead withdrew its peacekeeping troops. This caused a breakdown in relations between Russia and Armenia and has led to the latter seeking security support from Western countries instead.

Another example comes from Central Asia, where Kazakhstan finds itself in a difficult position after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The country is critical to the war and does not want to “find itself behind a new iron curtain”, according to deputy foreign minister Roman Vasilenko. At the same time, it remains economically dependent on Russia for both imports and exports. However, as the European Union is the largest foreign investor in the country and China is showing great presence through the Belt and Road Initiative, the door has opened for Kazakhstan to look towards other directions than its heavily sanctioned, economically crippled northern neighbor. On a more symbolic note, Kazakhstan is also in the process of switching alphabets, from the Cyrillic to the Latin.

When concluding, is it really possible to call the EEU “the new Russian Empire”? The idea in theory – an economic bloc of like-minded states that is able to compete with the EU – might be a yes. But as with many other cases, the aggressive nature of Russian foreign policy has caused self-inflicted hiccups in the machinery. It has left its neighboring states with the choice of either slipping behind the new Iron Curtain, or breaking away to look for new opportunities beyond, and without, Russia. The EEU might have been the beginning of a new empire, but has instead started to crumble.