Assad’s Downfall – The Vacuum of Uncertain Power

“WE ARE FREE!”

“WE ARE IN DANGER!”

Leader of HTS: “NO ONE HAS THE RIGHT TO ERASE ANOTHER”

The new government of Syria states that they’re pushing for inclusion after Assad’s downfall; will these promises be fulfilled, or will they echo as empty words?

Syria, a country ravaged by one of the deadliest and most complex civil wars of the 21st century, extending beyond Syria’s borders, where political dynamics and alliances constantly shift. A country that for a long time has been ruled by the Assad dynasty with numerous opposition groups; so many that researchers struggle to track which group has been responsible for which actions. Under Bashar Assad’s rule, there were multiple abuses against civilians by security forces, repression in government, and attacks with chemical weapons resulting in mass casualties and destruction.

“Human Rights Watch has collated and analyzed evidence of chemical weapons attacks in Syria between August 21, 2013, the day of the deadliest chemical weapon attack in Syria to date (…).” (Human Rights Watch, April 4, 2018)

Seven sources confirm the chemical abuses. ISIS have used chemical weapons as well according to HRW, and some perpetrators of chemical weapon attacks are unconfirmed. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), together with its allies, have brutally targeted minorities favored by the Assad dynasty before. In December of 2024, Syrian insurgencies (HTS and its allies) succeeded in overthrowing the Assad regime. On social media, we see tears from Syria: some of pure joy and others of intense fear. Assad’s downfall – is it something to celebrate or mourn?

An answer to this question is difficult to calculate due to the war’s deadliness and protraction. To some, the regime shift gives hope of saving an abundance of lives. An anticipation for an end to the blood-spill inside Syria’s war zone and on the ways of refugees.

To further understand this, we must revisit history and offer a simplified overview of why the war unfolded. The historical deep-seated tensions and uncertainty define Syria’s present.

It is common to start off by discussing the Arab Spring and the escalatory response by the regime as the start of armed conflict in Syria, but tensions and conflict existed long before the Arab Spring reached Syria. Syria gained its independence in 1946 and was previously under French colonial rule. The French colonial rule favored minorities, Alawites and Christians, by providing them with positions within the military and government. However, the vast majority in Syria are Sunni Muslims. When Alawite Hafez Assad rose to power after the inherently unstable regime shift, favoritism towards the considered elite of minorities continued. Extremist groups struck back without their actions yielding clear results or advances in inclusion across ethnic and religious lines. The authoritarian regime and widespread corruption led many insurgents to believe that a peaceful wish for an inclusive Syria with opportunities for all was unlikely.

Hafez Assad’s son, Bashar Assad, inherited power after his father’s death and allegedly made the rule more authoritarian after promising the opposite at first. It was clear that the voices of opposition were silenced when the Arab Spring reached Syria in 2011, where protests that initially were peaceful were met with open fire by state militia, aiming towards no-one and everyone in the crowd of protesters. Numerous insurgencies were created, some perhaps exploiting the void of chaos (such as ISIS), and a peaceful solution appeared to be increasingly distant.

Fast forward, after 13 years of civil war, Syrian insurgencies, more specifically HTS and its allies, overthrew the Assad regime, allegedly calling it the end of ‘Assadism’ and the beginning of liberation. Within only a few days, the insurgents reached Damascus after taking over other hotspots along the way. They occupied the Syrian Presidential Palace, destroyed buildings and statues in favor of the regime of Assad and freed prisoners. The regime was either unwilling or unable to defend Assad’s rule.

This takeover was allegedly “easier” than the insurgents themselves could have imagined; however, whether that is completely true is difficult to determine due to the numerous individuals and insurgent groups involved. Bashar Assad fled the country, and now a patchwork of former insurgent groups leads it. Is this the regime shift Syria has needed all along? Will it further complicate relations, or will the table flip with the same dynamics in hiding, only changing which group becomes the oppressor and which becomes the oppressed?

Regime shifts, as previously indicated, are inherently unstable, often creating a power vacuum in which new groups can emerge or existing groups can exploit the chaos to pursue their own goals. The success in challenging the regime in Syria could inspire other countries or insurgencies to attempt the same. This does not necessarily have to be either good or bad; it could result in numerous outcomes, much like the Arab Spring.

The contagious Arab Spring led to the fall of authoritarian regimes in some countries, but in Syria, it became a proximate reason, fuel to the fire, for the outbreak of civil war. Likewise, a contagious opposition to regimes could perhaps lead to democratization or pure armed chaos in the Middle Eastern region. Looking at Syria specifically and trying to predict the future, one difficulty is the number of actors involved. The individuals aiming for different goals could lead to internal splits in the organizational structure. If the more radicalized opinions are the ones listened to, is the only real difference who will be included?

On Social Media people heavily discuss this question, some, such as Cecilia in her 20’s, argue that the regime shift resembles the one in Afghanistan in the 1990’s. When the Taliban gained influence and then took over the power; they also pushed for security and ending corruption. However HTS are to our knowledge not openly declaring a fixed system, neither as an Islamic State or a democracy. The Taliban declared an Islamic Emirate after their takeover in Afghanistan.

Cecilia with ties to Syria fears,

– The inbetween (the shifts of regimes) is what is dangerous. At least it was controlled before the takeover, now we don’t know what will happen. It’s almost more secure under the Taliban in Afghanistan, ruling a declared system – the population knows what to expect!

Carolina cried watching the news of Syria being what she refers to as liberated,

– Be really careful now, Cecilia, do you really understand how it was and what you wish for?

Disregarding these warning signs, a devastating civil war under Assad’s rule of 13 years came to an end, and amongst voices from Syria this could be the first time of genuine hope. Assads’ regime used widespread torture and murdered civilians, so a former status quo would not be of preference to many either, continued violence after such a deadly war could be unavoidable.

Alawites and pro-assad figures have been specifically targeted in killings by state-associated figures. Furthermore, families have been forced to bury their dead family members without following traditional rules and holding religious ceremonies. Amnesty describes massacres being carried out against Alawite civilians, despite many Alawites being against the Assad regime, where people carrying out the unlawful killings blame deaths of Sunni-muslims on especially Alawites. The perception of Alawites being pro-Assad is argued to be growing in Syria fostering the already hostile attitudes.

In a conversation with Lydia, a christian born in Syria, she describes the regime shift as something negative,

– I’m sure ISIS has some control over the rule now, and everything, to survive, will be more difficult for us christians. There are a lot of prejudices against us and stark glorification concerning the new rule.

Further I ask her what prejudices and glorification she mostly keeps in mind,

– They (Lydia refers to ISIS that she indicates to be establishing control) describe Christians as enemies to Islam, and they see themselves as the justified defenders of Islam fighting what they view as corruption or aggression.

The situation in Syria is still unstable and walking a political tightrope. It is still argued to develop in a positive notion and be better than it once was, yet just as prone to unravel into a reality more oppressive than what came before. Has the population become too fragmented for inclusive local participation in peace and reconciliation? Or is it naive to expect an authoritarian rule in the midst of civil war to shift to a democratic rule in only a few months?

All of these questions will for now remain unanswered, only time will tell.

Final note: All of the names mentioned in the article are pseudonyms.