Corridors, Concessions, and Consequences for Armenia’s Future

The situation isn’t looking bright for Armenia, and it hasn’t for a long while. The South Caucasus nation has long been grappling with different challenges, more often than not caused by policies implemented under the Soviet Union. 

At the heart of their issues one can find Nagorno-Karabakh, a region deeply tied to Armenian cultural and national identity. Recent developments have, however, seen control of the region falling to Azerbaijan. Faced with the severe territorial and symbolic loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, the country is facing both a political and identity crisis, and, as such, Armenia has been left with no choice but to reassess its place in the world.

Azerbaijan however does not seem to be satisfied with the recent capture of Nagorno-Karabakh, and has now turned its eyes upon the Armenian Syunik region. In it, Azerbaijan wants to create a so-called “corridor”. This “Zangezur” corridor would provide a direct land route between Azerbaijan and its exclave, Nakchivan, fulfilling the pan-Turkic dream of linking up Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Prospects for reconciliation with Azerbaijan, Armenia’s long-standing rival, appear equally bleak. Although the countries still engage in peace talks, Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s president, makes use of rhetoric that undermines any real hope of progress. Only this year, he called for the elimination of fascists within Armenia – a phrase eerily reminiscent of Russian justifications for the invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the West Azerbaijani Community, a state-backed group, advocates for the return of Azerbaijanis to “Western Azerbaijan”, a move seen as a push for control over Syunik.

For Armenia, Syunik is a lifeline. The loss of the region would put Armenia in even greater geopolitical and economic isolation. Despite great diplomatic and military pressure, Armenia continues to resist the implementation of the corridor. But how will they do this? And with the help of who?

Russia, which Armenia has primarily relied upon for its security, has proven to be an unreliable partner. Their seeming unwillingness to protect Armenia in the face of Azerbaijani aggression during the 2020 war has deeply ravaged their relationship. As such, Armenia has begun searching for partners elsewhere in the western world, something made more difficult by their economic dependence on Russia.

Can Armenia find solace in its other neighbors? Unfortunately, the situation only worsens when looking at the wider regional landscape. To Armenia’s west lies Turkey, the successor of the state which systematically massacred and deported 1,5 million Armenians. Following Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan in the first Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, all borders have been closed and diplomatic ties severely strained. Turkey has since then signaled that any normalization with Armenia is dependent on Armenia’s normalization with Azerbaijan. 

On Armenia’s southern border one can find Iran, a country with which Armenia maintains relatively stable relations. Although the nations have great religious and cultural differences – Armenia being a Christian nation and Iran a predominantly Shi’a Muslim country – their shared regional interests have fostered cooperation. Iran has been a vocal opponent of Azerbaijani territorial ambitions over Syunik, declaring it a red line. Azerbaijani control over Syunik would block off Iran’s access to Armenia, which would impede their political and economical partnership. However, recent setbacks amongst Iran’s proxies – highlighted by the eliminations of key figures such as Hassan Nasrallah, Ismail Haniyah, and Yahya Sinwar – has left Iran on the back foot. As such, any support seems all the less likely.

Israel then? Seeing as it is often lauded as the only democracy in the Middle East, are they likely to step in and protect the territorial integrity of Armenia? Probably not. Israel’s deep political, military, and economical relations with Azerbaijan is decisive in a way that isn’t positive for Armenia. Quite the opposite actually, seeing as Israeli arms were used by Azerbaijan in the second Nagorno-Karabakh war.

Even Western powers, although vocal in their support, are unable to provide any meaningful aid. Its geographical place has left tangible support from the West limited to economic aid, rhetorical condemnations, and the import of small arms. France’s support has seen them coming to blows with Azerbaijan more than once and whilst the EU has an observation mission on the border, Azerbaijan has made it clear that no peace deal will be reached as long as they are present. Furthermore, Armenia’s reliance on Russia makes any flirtations with the West a high-stakes romance.

Amid the turbulence found in the geopolitical context, Armenia also faces internal challenges. Political polarization, public dissatisfaction, and economic stagnation have left the nation in a state of disarray. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, an avid social media user, rose to power during the 2018 Velvet Revolution on promises of reform. The reforms that the people of Armenia now seem to desire is his departure, based on his perceived inability to protect Armenia’s interests.

Armenia finds itself in a precarious spot. The small country is surrounded by larger hostile neighbours, reliant on unreliable allies, and forced to navigate an increasingly narrow set of options. One can only hope that there is light at the end of the tunnel.