By Erik Carlqvist
THE WORLD IN 2024 is far from stable. With multiple ongoing conflicts, violations of international law and norms, and democratic decline, the future seems uncertain. In these respects, Taiwan; the non-recognized, de facto independent democracy in East Asia awakes interest and can be seen as a main point of focus in the global struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. I spoke with Ambassador Dr. Klement Gu from the Taipei Mission in Sweden about the relations between Sweden and Taiwan and the growing threat from China.
Editor’s note: The Author also interviewed the Ambassador at Radio UF in a podcast available here
Taiwan, officially the Republic of China, finds itself in a unique political situation and stands out as an anomaly in the realms of international relations and geopolitics. To understand the present day situation and the discussion I had with the Ambassador, it may be useful to get a brief historic recap outlining the fundamental premises. Following the Chinese Civil War and the Communist Revolution which ended in 1949, the Chinese Communist Party declared the People’s Republic of China. The nationalist Kuomintang Party, which had ruled before the war, fled to the island of Taiwan situated less than 200 kilometers from the Chinese mainland which they still controlled. From Taiwan, they held on to their claim as being the legitimate rulers of the Republic of China.
The nationalist government of the Republic of China on Taiwan was then for more than 20 years favored in diplomatic relations over the communist People’s Republic of China based on the mainland. The nationalist government of the Republic of China, after the revolution only controlling Taiwan and a handful of smaller islands, remained in the UN and held a seat at the Security Council with veto right. However, in 1971, UN Resolution 2758 instead granted this seat to the communist government on the mainland by recognizing it as the sole legitimate ruler of China. Consequently, the nationalist government on Taiwan was thrown out of the UN which set the stage for current affairs. For clarity, I will now simply refer to the parties as Taiwan and China.
As China does not tolerate countries to recognize both governments, Taiwan has grown more and more diplomatically isolated, since almost all countries have chosen to recognize the communist government on the mainland. China’s extensive territorial size and immense population numbers may explain this. Its newfound position as a global power house has in recent years given it even more leverage to use against Taiwan’s diplomatic allies. As a result, Taiwan’s diplomatic allies have become fewer and Taiwan cannot participate in international organizations such as the UN or any of its agencies such as the WHO. The most recent country to break with Taiwan in favor of China was Honduras in August 2023, and Taiwan is today only recognized by a handful of smaller states, mainly situated in Oceania and Latin America.
“The nationalist government on Taiwan was thrown out of the UN which set the stage for current affairs.”
Despite this lack of formal diplomatic connections, Taiwan has a vast net of informal relations, including strong ties to the United States and many European countries. Although not officially recognized by the international community, Taiwan has indeed functioned as a de facto independent state for almost 75 years. Its government no longer seeks to control China, but rather seeks to secure the status quo and Taiwan’s territorial integrity.
Today, according to several rankings, Taiwan is the most democratic state in Asia. It is home to just under 24 million people and has a highly developed economy. In terms of civil rights, election procedures, and other indicators of democratic quality, it ranks higher than several Western democracies. China, on the other hand, has developed into a closed authoritarian state committing major human rights violations. China’s President, Xi Jinping, has in rhetoric and policy made the goal of incorporating Taiwan into China a priority – as the Chinese standpoint is that Taiwan is an “unliberated” integral part of China. However, the overwhelming majority of Taiwan’s population does not wish for a unification with China. Instead, they prefer the status quo.
In order to pressure Taiwan, China has in recent years performed increasingly aggressive military drills around the island, routinely entering its airspace with military jets, continuously launching immense numbers of cyber attacks, and even firing ballistic missiles into Taiwan’s territorial waters. As China conducts these operations close to Taiwan’s shores, which reduces Taiwan’s response time, analysts warn that there are risks of miscalculations or misinterpreting of intentions. Such misunderstandings could potentially spark an accidental conflict. On top of this, U.S. President Joe Biden has on several occasions said that the American military would defend Taiwan in the case of a Chinese invasion. This means that there is a real possibility of war between China and the U.S., if China would invade Taiwan, which obviously would send shockwaves worldwide.
With this context setting the scene, I spoke to Dr. Klement Gu, Ambassador from the Taipei Mission in Sweden. As Sweden and Taiwan do not have official diplomatic relations, neither country has an embassy on the other’s territory. However, the Taipei Mission in Sweden serves similar functions of one.
When I asked Ambassador Gu about the relationship between Sweden and Taiwan today in 2024, he strongly emphasized the common values shared by the two states, such as the commitment to democracy, as an important foundation for the relations. He mentioned several areas where he saw potential for more cooperation and win-win outcomes, within the economic, health, and energy realms. The ambassador also suggested that more exchanges and engagement between politicians and high ranking civil servants should be pursued as this would facilitate the articulation of common interests. According to Ambassador Gu, this could strengthen the bond between Sweden and Taiwan and, in extension, improve the general understanding of both nations among their citizens.
I further asked the ambassador what actions he believed other democratically like-minded countries may take to promote stability in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific region. Here, the main point the Ambassador made was that countries like Sweden and other European nations should not think of Taiwan as being something far away and irrelevant. In addition to the shared common values, Ambassador Gu pointed out that around 40% of the EU’s trade passes through the Taiwan Strait, which illustrates the strategic importance of stability in the region as well as a critical EU interest. A disturbance in the case of conflict would have far reaching consequences felt worldwide. The Ambassador urged Sweden and Europe to acknowledge this common economic interest and the shared democratic values, which calls for more attention towards Taiwan and the threat that China poses to it. In his own words; “Taiwan is located on the frontline of authoritarian expansion”.
“Countries like Sweden and other European nations should not think of Taiwan as being something far away and irrelevant.”
In addition to being situated along a crucial trade route, Taiwan has another unique economic and strategic aspect to it, namely the fact that it is world leading in the manufacturing of semiconductors and advanced computer chips. In everything from the electronic device you may read this article on, to sophisticated military equipment, semiconductors can be found. And they will most likely originate from Taiwan. Taiwan manufactures roughly 65% of the world’s semiconductors and about 90% of the world’s most advanced computer chips. According to some, this may be seen as a “silicon shield”, which may deter Chinese aggression, as disrupting this trade flow and/or hampering production capabilities would inevitably hurt China. Ambassador Gu pointed out that this Taiwanese dominance in the high tech sector is indeed an important factor safeguarding the status quo.
Despite China’s aggressive behavior and some sounding the alarm bell, Ambassador Gu said that he sees an invasion of Taiwan in the near future as unlikely. He attributes this to several factors, such as ongoing domestic problems in China, the American commitment towards Taiwan including the superiority of the U.S. military in a hypothetical conflict, and the great volume of trade that would be lost for China in the wake of such a war. Instead, he views a continuation of the “gray zone tactics”, such as cyber attacks, aggressive military exercises, and other coercive methods without using brute force as the more likely development. According to Ambassador Gu, this may even be attributed to the ancient Chinese war philosophy of Sun Tzu, in which it is preferable to try and win a conflict without bloodshed and soldiers. Still, China is rapidly expanding its military capabilities and has, as mentioned, not renounced the potential use of violence in the future.
Although a direct conflict may not be around the corner, it is clear that the free world should pay attention to Taiwan, remember what is at stake, and recognize our interconnectedness. This goes for values, economics, and as with all peoples on our planet; our common humanity. Concluding with words from Ambassador Gu: “So far away, you have a friend: Taiwan”.
By: Erik Carlqvist
Cover: Unsplash
