THE BANNER OF THE SOVIET UNION waved proudly over the cities of Central Asia only 33 years ago. By that time, the countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan had been governed by Russians for over 100 years. The countries are now independent, but Russia has retained its grip on the region for a long time during the post-Soviet era. However, another superpower that historically possessed great influence over the region but was outrivalled by the Russian Empire has now begun to compete and increase its foothold once again. The clearest example is in Kazakhstan, since it is the largest and most significant country in the region, and because the different sides of this power competition are seen extremely clearly there. This type of constant maximization of influence and struggle between global superpowers is a common topic in the modern political discourse, but what is rarely discussed are the countries ending up stuck in between.
In the arid steppes of eastern Kazakhstan, a few kilometers from the farthest point on Earth from the open sea, lies the seemingly insignificant town of Horgos. However, this town is a crucial player in global geopolitics. It sits precisely on the border with China, where a significant amount of resources are constantly being channeled from both sides. The ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a Chinese plan to increase its influence across Eurasia, drives these investments.
Consider this: What are the geopolitical implications of the burgeoning partnership between Kazakhstan and China? This question becomes even more pressing when we look at the ambitious infrastructural projects, such as the world’s largest dry port for freight trains, an international trade center, and even an entire city, that are part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Kazakhstan.
“What are the geopolitical implications of the burgeoning partnership between Kazakhstan and China?”
Traditionally, the realist perspective of international relations theory explains the actions of larger countries, focusing on their self-centered nature and the pursuit of power or security. However, examining Kazakhstan’s situation makes it clear that this is a matter of relationships. The constructivist perspective, which emphasizes the role of actors in shaping their reality through interactions, values, and relations, challenges the notion that material power is the sole determinant of the global system.
Today, Russia is merely a shadow of its former self, both in terms of the global political scene and its global economic influence. It used to be the mightiest country in the world, together with the United States, just some decades ago. Its sphere of influence was enormous and covered countries on almost all continents. Today, China has completely overtaken Russia both economically and politically. The two countries have been united by their common hostility towards the US but still view each other with some skepticism due to their competition for economic power and political influence in Eurasia, most notably in Central Asia. In addition, they share a long history of political and military conflicts. From Kazakhstan’s perspective, it is evident that it has found itself amid this power struggle between Russia and China, being pulled in both directions in what might be described as a geopolitical tug-of-war.
Kazakhstan’s relationship with these two superpowers has swayed up and down throughout history, especially with Russia. The decades after have been characterized by a continued strong Russian presence in Kazakhstan. A strong Russian presence in Kazakhstan has characterized the final lowering of the Soviet banner. Many post-Soviet countries distanced themselves from what they viewed as their former oppressor, but Kazakhstan chose the opposite path. It joined CSTO (Russia’s NATO) and EEU (Russia’s EU), becoming a clearly integrated part of the new Russian sphere of influence. On the contrary, its partnership with China is a relatively new phenomenon and is mostly based on the economic incentives provided by the BRI.
“Қазақстан is becoming Qazaqstan.”
After the emergence of China as a competing actor in Central Asia, Kazakhstan has chosen a clear path as to which of the countries to pursue relations with. It has embraced China and started distancing itself from Moscow lately based on several factors. Firstly, Kazakhstan is undergoing a process of liberalization of its political system, which is the opposite of the development in Russia. Secondly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is something Kazakhstan has taken a skeptical stance towards. However, the reason why it has not officially condemned the invasion is because it still relies heavily on Russia for both exports and imports. Nonetheless, this has furthered the process of distancing between the countries. An excellent illustration of this process is a Kazakh presidential decree ordering the conversion of the Kazakh language from the Cyrillic to the Latin alphabet. This operation is underway and expected to be finished by 2031. Қазақстан is becoming Qazaqstan. These reasons reflect very well how substantial values and ideas have been in shaping Kazakhstan’s relations with the two competing superpowers.
The answer to the previously posed question is, therefore, that Kazakhstan’s increased partnership with China might further deepen the rift that has started to emerge between itself and Russia. As it grows more and more integrated into the Chinese economic empire and its reliance on Russia diminishes, the rift might slowly evolve into a gaping wound for the Kremlin. This wound, being the sight of a region it has controlled for centuries, slowly slipping out of its hands.
